Turns out persecution doesn't actually make religions grow. Historically, Christianity won because it had the government's wallet, not because of martyrs.
March 27, 2026
Original Paper
China is Not the New Rome: An Agent-Based Model Test of the Supply-Side Theory
SocArXiv · t9f7u_v2
AI-generated illustration
The Takeaway
Using agent-based modeling to test 'supply-side' religious theory, the author found that persecution-driven solidarity filters the existing faithful but fails to expand the pool of converts. The study argues that the 'Roman Model' of growth through persecution is a historical myth that doesn't hold up under formalized logic.
From the abstract
Nationally representative surveys suggest Chinese Christian growth has plateaued at 2–5%, contrasting with supply-side predictions of 7–10% annual growth and an eventual Christian majority. Using an agent-based model, I formalize the theory's core mechanisms, including competitive evangelism, strict-church retention, cross-religion recruitment, and persecution-driven solidarity, under conditions more favorable to Christianity than any real religious market. Four findings emerge. First, the distr