Having a strong economy protects people from climate disasters way more than any specific climate policy ever could.
We usually assume that reducing carbon emissions is the primary way to prevent future climate-related deaths. This paper finds that because economic development is the dominant driver of safety, expensive climate policies that slow down growth could actually make people more vulnerable to climate hazards than the weather itself.
The economics of climate adaptation optimism
SocArXiv · m7tqu_v2
Adaptation is often framed as marginally important to addressing climate change, and as socio-technically difficult and ineffectual. We combine theoretical and empirical analyses to show that adaptation—especially via economic development—is actually often the dominant driver of climate-sensitive societal outcomes, especially on smaller space and time scales. This aligns adaptation with markets and governance incentives. For these reasons, widely studied climate-sensitive outcomes such as crop y