Billionaires and gold medalists are the worst people to study if you want to learn how to be successful.
April 20, 2026
Original Paper
Studying the Best Can Mislead: Selection Bias in Expertise Research
PsyArXiv · kz9ad_v1
The Takeaway
Expertise research almost always focuses on the tiny group of people who have already reached the top of their fields. This selection bias ignores the thousands of people who followed the exact same path but failed for various reasons. Traits that appear common in winners often exist in losers too, making those traits useless for predicting who will actually win. Statistics show that characteristics we attribute to grit or talent might just be survivorship bias in disguise. You are better off looking at why people fail than trying to replicate the unique luck of a superstar.
From the abstract
Much of what we think we know about how people reach exceptional performance could be distorted by who gets studied. Studying elite performers has been highly informative for understanding the cognitive mechanisms of expertise, but less so for explaining how expertise develops. Elite samples are filtered on the very success researchers want to explain. Predictors that appear beneficial early in development often weaken or reverse among world-class adults. These findings are commonly interpreted