The Baltimore bridge collapse wasn't a freak accident; a major U.S. bridge is statistically likely to be hit every two years.
April 17, 2026
Original Paper
There's no such thing as free shipping: The significant risk large vessels pose to U.S. bridges
engrxiv · 6846
The Takeaway
After a cargo ship took down a bridge in Maryland, many called it a 'black swan' event. This data-driven study of 357 major U.S. bridges found that 54 of them are currently sitting ducks for massive vessels. Based on traffic and safety records, we should expect a ship-bridge collision every 2.3 years. It is not a matter of if, but when the next major artery of the U.S. economy gets severed. This turns a single tragedy into a national emergency, proving our infrastructure is fundamentally unprepared for the size of modern ships.
From the abstract
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland in March 2024 raised major concerns surrounding bridge safety in the United States. This work presents the first comprehensive, data-driven investigation of large-vessel allision1 risk for all major bridges in the United States and shows that the risk of a ship strike is high for 54 bridges. The study follows the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials Method II vulnerability assessment approach and is