Dengue fever isn't actually climbing into the high mountains of Nepal as fast as everyone thought.
April 23, 2026
Original Paper
Population-Weighted Elevation Reveals that Coarse District-Level Analyses Overestimate the Altitudinal Shift of Dengue in Nepal
SSRN · 6620241
The Takeaway
Previous reports suggested that climate change was pushing this tropical disease into high altitude regions. New analysis shows that these findings were a mathematical error caused by averaging the elevation of entire districts. When researchers looked at where people actually live, they found the disease is staying in the warm, low lying valleys. This changes the entire strategy for public health, refocusing efforts on high density lowland areas rather than mountain villages.
From the abstract
The potential altitudinal expansion of dengue fever under climate change has received increasing attention. In Nepal, rising dengue incidence across all districts has been interpreted as evidence of spread into higher elevations. However, such conclusions are often based on district-level aggregated data, which can misrepresent transmission patterns in a highly heterogeneous mountainous landscape. District mean elevation frequently includes extensive uninhabited high-altitude areas, leading to o