Soviet military bases in East Germany actually made local residents wealthier and more pro-Russian than German military bases did.
April 25, 2026
Original Paper
Political Economy of Military Presence in Autocracies: Evidence from the German Democratic Republic
SSRN · 6616158
The Takeaway
Foreign occupying forces are usually expected to cause local resentment and economic drain. Soviet soldiers in the German Democratic Republic were forbidden from importing goods, forcing them to buy everything from local bakeries and services. This local spending boosted the economy far more than domestic German bases that relied on national supply chains. Decades later, the areas surrounding former Soviet bases still hold significantly more positive views of Russia. Economic dependence can sometimes override the natural friction of a military occupation.
From the abstract
Authoritarian regimes often rely on military institutions to repress and exploit citizens. Yet in former communist countries, some societies remain surprisingly pro-Russian despite Soviet repression. What explains the diverse effects of militaries in autocracies? I argue that when the military depends on local communities, it can generate positive economic effects. In contrast, when it operates independently, it becomes predatory. This paper leverages variance in local dependence by focusing on