economics Nature Is Weird

Immigration raids are making kids skip school, even if their families aren't the ones being targeted.

April 17, 2026

Original Paper

Immigration Enforcement Actions and Empty Desks: Persistent and Acute Attendance Effects

SSRN · 6583522

The Takeaway

We often think of immigration enforcement as something that only affects the people being detained. This study shows a massive 'chilling effect' where federal enforcement actions cause a spike in school absences across the entire foreign-born student population. Older students are hit the hardest, as the fear of a raid ripples through the community and disrupts the basic stability of the classroom. It’s a quantifiable look at how political actions in the 'adult' world create a persistent educational crisis for children. For these kids, a policy debate isn't just news—it’s a reason to be afraid to go to school.

From the abstract

How do immigration enforcement actions (IEAs) affect student attendance, and through what channels? We use student-by-day administrative records from a mid-size school district to estimate the causal effect of heightened federal immigration enforcement following the January 2025 presidential inauguration on student attendance using a difference-in-differences design. We find that IEAs cause a substantial and persistent increase in absences among foreign-born students, with the daily probability