When a country announces a National AI Strategy, its economy actually slows down for years.
April 17, 2026
Original Paper
National AI Strategies and Macroeconomic Performance A Staggered Difference-in-Differences Approach
SSRN · 6580199
The Takeaway
We assume that a formal government plan for AI is an immediate green light for growth and innovation. In reality, countries that adopt these strategies see a decrease in GDP per capita growth of up to 1.0 percentage point for the following 3-4 years. This is the 'J-curve' in action: the initial costs of restructuring, regulation, and investment create a significant drag before any benefits kick in. It’s a warning that 'digital transformation' is an expensive, messy process that looks like a failure on paper before it ever looks like a success. For the average person, it means that big government tech promises might actually make things tighter in the short term.
From the abstract
Governments worldwide have responded to the rise of artificial intelligence by publishing National AI Strategies (NAS), comprehensive policy documents that allocate public R&D funding, establish AI education programs, create governance frameworks, and signal long-term commitment to AI-driven transformation. This paper provides the first cross-country causal evaluation of these policy responses on macroeconomic outcomes. Exploiting the staggered adoption of NAS across 44 countries between 2017 an