economics Paradigm Challenge

Earthquakes can happen deep underground even in bone-dry rock, which completely kills the theory that you need water to make the ground slip.

April 10, 2026

Original Paper

Frictional instability in quartz gouge at elevated temperature: Beyond the need for water

Shoya Uchikoshi, Hiroshi Sakuma, Ikuo Katayama, Kenji Kawai

SSRN · 6552580

The Takeaway

For years, geologists believed that water acted as a necessary lubricant or trigger for the violent "stick-slip" motion of earthquake faults. This study shows that at high temperatures, dry quartz can snap and slide all on its own, meaning quakes are possible in environments we previously thought were stable.

From the abstract

The presence and dynamics of aqueous fluids play a critical role in earthquake occurrence. However, some earthquakes occurred even in areas with little aqueous fluid. To investigate the slip stability of dry quartz gouge, velocity-step shear experiments were performed using a double-direct shear apparatus at a normal stress of 10 MPa, temperatures from 30  to 400 ℃ , and sliding velocities from 0.36 µm/s to 39 µm/s. The steady-state friction coefficients at 3.0 µm/s were in the range of 0.619-0.