The government's inflation data might be a result of how they ask the question, not what you actually think.
April 17, 2026
Original Paper
Ask Me Differently, I Expect Differently: Survey Framing and Inflation Expectations
SSRN · 6460878
The Takeaway
We assume that surveys of 'inflation expectations' are objective snapshots of public belief. But this research shows that simply changing the format—from an open-ended question to a multiple-choice list—completely changes the results. Open-ended questions make people predict much higher inflation. Since the Federal Reserve uses this data to set interest rates, our entire national monetary policy might be an artifact of survey design. It suggests that the 'consensus' on the economy is far more fragile than we think. For you, it means the interest rate on your mortgage might depend on whether a pollster used a dropdown menu or a blank box.
From the abstract
This paper studies how the wording and format of survey questions shape measured inflation expectations during a period of exceptionally high inflation. Using a randomised experiment, embedded in the 2022 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we compare open-ended questions with guidedchoice options using an interval regression framework that jointly models point and interval-valued responses without arbitrary harmonisation. We find that question format substantially alters the l