economics Nature Is Weird

If you ask a donor for a monthly subscription and they say no, they're actually way more likely to give you a one-time donation later on.

April 10, 2026

Original Paper

Beyond Upgrade Success: How Declined Subscription Requests Shape Subsequent Donation Behavior

Christian Hotz-Behofsits, Pascal Güntürkün, Sven Mikolon

SSRN · 6441018

The Takeaway

You might think a 'no' would alienate a supporter, but it actually triggers a 7% boost in future giving. It seems that saying no to a big commitment makes people feel a slight 'guilt' or desire to prove they still care with a smaller gift.

From the abstract

A key managerial challenge for charitable organizations is to upgrade donors who donate irregularly or ad-hoc to subscribed givers through upgrade solicitations. While prior research has focused on identifying ways to increase upgrading success, we know little about the consequences of unsuccessful upgrading attempts by charities, which constitute the vast majority. Adopting an empirics-first approach, we examine how declining an upgrade request affects subsequent ad-hoc donation behavior. We an