If you suddenly cut off foreign aid, you’re basically guaranteed to see a spike in riots and local battles.
March 26, 2026
Original Paper
Aid Shocks and Political Conflict: Evidence from the Disruption to United States Foreign Aid
SSRN · 6438644
The Takeaway
Common wisdom suggests aid fuels corruption or rebel funding, but this study shows that its sudden removal is the real trigger for violence. The abrupt loss of funding signals that the government is currently weak and broke, creating a 'now-or-never' window for rebels and protestors to attack before the state can reorganize.
From the abstract
<div> How do foreign aid shocks affect political conflict? I answer this question by (1) leveraging the exogenously timed disruption to United States foreign assistance in 2025, (2) building a novel dataset of subnational locations of foreign assistance projects, and (3) conducting a pre-registered analysis. I find that the disruption caused a substantial increase in conflict, including conflict that is typically driven by armed groups (such as battles) as well as conflict typically driven by ci