Government pay surveys are totally missing the real wage gap in tech because they ignore the stock options people get.
While official Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggests top software engineers earn about 3 times more than entry-level staff, the actual ratio is often over 10 to 1 when stock options are included. Because government surveys primarily track base salaries, policymakers are making decisions based on data that misses up to 70% of the total compensation at the top of the market.
<div> Vetter's Paradox in Real Data:&nbsp; </div> <div> Senior Wage Premiums, Employment Reallocation, and the Measurement Blindness of Government Wage Surveys </div>
SSRN · 6347239
The Acemoglu-Restrepo framework predicts monotonic automation displacement. Deobhakta (2026) shows theoretically that when within-task competence heterogeneity (κ) is substantial, displacement follows a spike-cliff trajectory. This paper tests for early-stage spike dynamics using three data sources: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (2019-2024), CPS microdata (2018-2025), and Levels.fyi total compensation reports. In government wage data, the evidence is suggestive but limited: mea