If your rent goes up today, you can bet the price of a haircut or a doctor's visit will go up too within the next couple of years.
March 25, 2026
Original Paper
<p>Land Rents and the Timing of Non-Tradable Inflation: Evidence from 1914–2026</p>
SSRN · 6306078
The Takeaway
While most people assume inflation hits the economy all at once, this research found that housing costs act as a massive 'leading indicator' for services. Rent increases consistently ripple through the rest of the economy with a stable 12-to-24-month time lag.
From the abstract
This paper documents a robust empirical regularity in U.S. inflation dynamics: market rent inflation consistently precedes non-housing services inflation by roughly 12-24 months. Using BLS rent and shelter CPI series (1914-2026), Census median real rents (1940-2000), Tax Foundation realized capital gains (1913-2025), BLS nonfarm productivity (1947-2025), and Zillow Observed Rent Index (2016-2026), we find: • A VAR on ZORI data shows rent shocks explain 13-21% of services CPI variance at 12-24 mo