economics Cosmic Scale

Market crashes aren't just bad luck—they're what happens when the math of the market literally runs out of room to move.

March 27, 2026

Original Paper

Market Behavior: The Structural Drivers of Bubbles and Panics

Denis Bailey

SSRN · 6206138

The Takeaway

Rather than blaming crashes on irrational people, this paper models markets as geometric shapes that occasionally 'collapse' when a single narrative becomes too dominant. In these moments, the math of the system forces everyone to act in sync, meaning individual choice actually disappears until a circuit breaker restores 'dimensionality' to the market.

From the abstract

Financial markets routinely transition between stable and unstable regimes, yet traditional explanations-irrational behavior, exogenous shocks, or information imperfections-fail to account for the structural coherence of bubbles, panics, and liquidity crises. This paper presents a unified framework in which markets are modeled as orientation-sensitive manifolds whose stability depends on the dimensionality of the trajectories available to participants. We identify presentation-driven trajectory