Starting a new conspiracy theory requires almost no data, but debunking one requires proving every single possible alternative cause is wrong.
April 23, 2026
Original Paper
Causal Persuasion
arXiv · 2604.20664
The Takeaway
Mathematical models show that establishing a perceived causal link is remarkably easy for the human brain. To convince someone of a false belief, a person only needs a tiny amount of suggestive data. However, ruling out that same false belief requires a communicator to disclose and disprove every single possible common cause. This mathematical asymmetry explains why misinformation spreads so much faster than truth. Regular people find themselves trapped in false logic because the burden of proof for the truth is impossibly high.
From the abstract
We propose a model of causal persuasion, in which a sender selectively discloses a set of variables together with their true joint distribution and proposes a subjective causal model that binds them. A receiver is persuaded by this model only if the data conclusively identifies the causal link of interest. We characterize when such persuasion succeeds or fails, and how easily it can be achieved. We further show that if the receiver holds a pre-existing subjective model, debunking it is similar t