The terrifying doomsday prediction that a major Atlantic ocean current will collapse by 2050 is not actually backed by solid data.
April 25, 2026
Original Paper
Extrapolation from historical data cannot reliably predict the time of a potential AMOC collapse
arXiv · 2604.20341
The Takeaway
High-profile climate models recently warned that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is on the brink of failure. This new analysis shows that those predictions relied on historical data that is too messy and uncertain to provide a reliable timeline. The researchers found that previous studies significantly underestimated the statistical noise and structural gaps in our ocean records. While the current could still be at risk, we cannot scientifically claim that a collapse is imminent within the next few decades. This finding challenges a widely publicized fear and suggests we need much better monitoring before we can make such a massive prediction.
From the abstract
Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen [Nature Communications, 2023] (DD23 hereafter) propose a statistical framework to estimate the timing of a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on extrapolating information from observed sea-surface temperature (SST) variability. By fitting a stochastic one-dimensional fold-bifurcation model to an SST-based fingerprint of the AMOC using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), they conclude that a collapse is most likely to occur