In just three years, the number of times satellites had to swerve to avoid crashing in space went from 7,000 to over 144,000.
March 26, 2026
Original Paper
Orbital Debris in Earth Orbit: Operations, Stability, Control, and Market Formation
arXiv · 2603.23552
The Takeaway
As mega-constellations like Starlink fill the sky, orbital traffic has reached a critical tipping point. This study shows that avoiding a catastrophic chain reaction of space junk is no longer an occasional task but a constant, automated struggle occurring every few minutes.
From the abstract
Orbital debris in Earth orbit is not adequately described as a static inventory problem. It is a coupled operations-stability problem governed by shell occupancy, collision kernel, breakup severity, and orbital residence time. The near-term orbital sustainability is controlled by three variables: disposal reliability for newly launched spacecraft, encounter-state uncertainty in the high-risk conjunction tail, and the residual hazard stock of inactive high-mass legacy objects. Using public ESA, N