New research shows you can predict a system's future even if you have no idea what laws of physics are actually running it.
March 24, 2026
Original Paper
Predictability of Observables of Dynamical Systems
arXiv · 2603.20641
The Takeaway
While science usually relies on physical models to forecast events, this paper shows that for many systems, a long enough history of observations contains a complete 'shadow' of the system's own rules. This allows for accurate predictions even if the underlying physics remains a complete mystery.
From the abstract
We study the evolution of observables of dynamical systems. For linear systems, we show that observables satisfy a closed differential equation whose minimal order is determined by the dynamical system and observation operator. This yields a minimal order closure and an equivalent discrete delay representation of the observable dynamics. For nonlinear systems we introduce the notion of diminishing ambiguity, which provides a framework under which the instantaneous observable dynamics can be appr