A new map can predict exactly which roads will turn to liquid and trap people during a major earthquake.
March 19, 2026
Original Paper
A Framework for Modeling Liquefaction-Induced Road Disruptions After Earthquakes: Implications for Emergency Response and Access in the Cascadia Region of North America
arXiv · 2603.16948
The Takeaway
Large earthquakes can trigger 'liquefaction,' a phenomenon where solid ground suddenly behaves like a liquid soup. This study pinpointed the exact highway links and hospital access points in Washington and Oregon that are most likely to sink or collapse, revealing that many coastal communities could become total islands with no land access to the outside world.
From the abstract
Large earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) are expected to trigger widespread soil liquefaction that could disrupt transportation systems across the U.S. Pacific Northwest. However, past regional assessments have relied on simple geologic screening methods and binomial shaking thresholds that are only loosely informed by liquefaction science. This study introduces a mechanics-informed, data-driven framework for estimating liquefaction-induced road closures and service reductions,