economics Paradigm Challenge

Banks are starting to care more about who you know than how much money you actually have when they’re deciding on your loan.

March 16, 2026

Original Paper

Topology as information: Network effects in corporate lending

Anna Pirogova, Anna Mancini, Tiziano Squartini, Giulio Cimini

arXiv · 2603.12417

The Takeaway

We usually assume creditworthiness is based on how much money or collateral a company has. This study shows that network 'topology' has become a primary proxy for trust, effectively replacing physical collateral even for small businesses.

From the abstract

A central challenge in financial economics is understanding how credit networks form under informational noise. We introduce the concept of topological capital, arguing that banks increasingly rely on topological certification, interpreting a borrower's connectivity as a primary proxy for creditworthiness. Using a novel dataset of bank-firm relationships manually extracted from Italian financial statements, we implement a multi-stage empirical framework, benchmarking empirical patterns against a