A massive study of 53,000 animal groups found that 80% aren't actually shrinking, which totally flips the script on the 'everything is dying' narrative.
March 30, 2026
Original Paper
Forecasts for 80% of wild populations and communities predict no change, and why
bioRxiv · 2025.06.13.659576
AI-generated illustration
The Takeaway
While we often assume most wild species are in a state of constant flux or decline, this study found that 'no change' is the most likely statistical forecast for the vast majority of populations. It suggests that despite environmental pressures, many ecological systems are more directionally stable than previously thought.
From the abstract
Many retrospective analyses of biodiversity trends reveal a complex picture, including significant declines but also increases. However, prospective analyses (i.e. what near-term trends to expect) remain comparatively rare. Here, we generate and assess forecasts for approximately 43,000 population-level and 10,000 community-level time series from localities across the globe and covering taxa across the Tree of Life. Using unobserved components models and model selection, we found that only 23.5%