AI can predict how New Yorker stories and psych case studies end with 85% accuracy using a few simple rules.
March 24, 2026
Original Paper
AI ASSISTANCE FOR PREDICTING NARRATIVE OUTCOMES
PsyArXiv · z3j4m_v1
The Takeaway
We like to think of human behavior and literary art as complex and unpredictable. This research demonstrates that human narratives follow such rigid underlying patterns that an AI using a 'rulebook' can accurately foresee the outcome of high-brow stories and clinical cases it has never seen before.
From the abstract
Abstract Psychodynamic clinicians face a persistent challenge: their claims are typically validated by postdiction — they apply concepts to narratives, such as case histories, whose outcome is already known. They rarely offer prospective predictions. This paper presents a systematic, rule-based framework for predicting the outcomes of stories of human actions. If these findings are valid, the methods used may be useful for similar attempts to leverage LLM strengths in further research. This f