The 2008 financial crisis and the Fukushima nuclear disaster were caused by the exact same mathematical formula.
A single multiplicative stress integral can predict when any complex system is about to fall apart. Whether it is a bank, a power plant, or a biological pandemic, the structural logic of collapse remains identical across every field. We treat these disasters as isolated events with unique causes like human error or bad policy. This framework shows that collapse is a universal property of how different parts of a system interact under stress. This means we can use the same math to monitor the health of a national economy and a nuclear reactor.
Domain-agnostic multiplicative stress framework for systemic collapse
research_square · rs-8968998
Abstract Complex systems rarely collapse from a single perturbation; however, no framework has formalized the coincidence mechanism across domains. Here, we introduce a multiplicative stress integral, S(t) = ρ(t) × Ψ(t) × Ω(t), which decomposes systemic stress into external pressure (ρ), internal amplification (Ψ), and structural degradation (Ω). The multiplicative structure drives the stress toward zero when any channel is quiescent, thereby creating a coincidence filter. The cumulative index Π