The Amazon rainforest could reach a total ecosystem collapse as early as the 2030s due to a specific combination of heat and logging.
Previous estimates for the death of the world's largest rainforest often focused on much higher temperature spikes. Massive die-offs may actually trigger when global warming hits just 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius alongside roughly 25 percent deforestation. This tipping point leads to a system-wide loss of 62 to 77 percent of the forest area. The transition from lush jungle to dry savanna happens far faster than once predicted. Local communities and global weather patterns will face drastic shifts if these thresholds are crossed within the next decade.
Pinpointing Amazon forest tipping in global warming and deforestation pathways
research_square · rs-5840795
Abstract Humanity is putting unprecedented pressures on the Amazon forest systems due to global warming, deforestation, land-use change as well as large-scale infrastructure projects. Since the Amazon forest may possess a tipping point beyond which detrimental changes are self-propelling, these pressures could lead to system-wide state changes across major parts of the Amazon forest. We apply a dynamical systems model to assess the tipping risks and cascading transitions in the Amazon forest sys