The recent shift of Latino voters toward the GOP was actually driven by those voters becoming more anti-immigration.
March 19, 2026
Original Paper
What Role Did Immigration Attitudes Play in Latinos’ 2016-2024 Swing Toward the GOP?
SocArXiv · jgmqh_v2
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The Takeaway
Contrary to the 'demographics is destiny' theory that aggressive border rhetoric alienates Latino voters, this study found that Latinos who shifted to the GOP between 2016 and 2024 did so because their own attitudes toward unauthorized immigration became significantly more restrictionist. They placed just as much weight on immigration in 2024 as they did in 2016, but their preference shifted toward enforcement.
From the abstract
After the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, scholars and observers frequently characterized Latino voters as unlikely to support anti-immigration candidates, especially when immigration is salient. However, between 2016 and 2024, Latinos were among the groups that swung the most toward the GOP. Given the mismatch between Donald Trump's strident opposition to unauthorized immigration and Latinos' historically pro-immigration views, understanding the role of Latinos' immigration attitudes in v