Military officers and political elites now have a financial incentive to keep wars going so they can profit from prediction markets.

Geopolitical crises are being turned into speculative financial assets where the timing of attacks is leaked for insider trading. This geopolitical casino creates a structural motive for leaders to prolong conflicts rather than seek peace. Most observers believe that war is a drain on resources that every nation wants to end as quickly as possible. This research reveals that war has become a lucrative asset class for those with the power to control its duration. Financializing conflict may be making the world a much more dangerous place.