The physical shape of a county's connection to its neighbors is the most accurate predictor of how many jobs it will lose in a recession.

A geometric measure called the Industrial Curvature Index uses graph theory to map how different regional economies are linked. This curvature of industrial relationships determines whether a local economy is resilient or vulnerable during a financial crash. Economic planners usually look at employment rates or industry types to judge a region's health. This discovery suggests that the mathematical structure of a network is more important than the individual parts. Understanding the shape of a network could allow for better protection against future economic shocks.