Brazil saw a massive surge in legal firearm registrations between 2019 and 2021 without a single corresponding increase in gun suicides.
This data challenges the consensus that more guns in a society automatically lead to more self-inflicted deaths. The relationship between firearm availability and suicide appears to have a boundary in middle-income countries with large illegal markets. Public health experts typically assume that reducing gun access is the most direct way to lower suicide rates. This study shows that in specific social contexts, legal ownership trends do not dictate individual behavior in the way models predict. Policy makers must look beyond simple ownership numbers to understand the actual drivers of violence.
Legalized Civilian Firearms and Gun Suicide in Brazil: Evidence from an Expansion-Reversal Policy Cycle
SSRN · 6667722
Existing evidence shows that firearm availability can increase suicide mortality, especially in high-prevalence settings where legal access closely proxies household exposure. This paper tests whether that relationship transports to a middle-income country with low baseline legal prevalence and a large illegal market. Between 2019 and 2022, Brazil sharply loosened civilian firearm access through executive decrees; in 2023, the incoming administration abruptly reversed course. Linking Federal Pol