People in nursing homes are actually much more likely to die in the weeks right after a scheduled inspection.
March 26, 2026
Original Paper
Predictably Unpredictable Inspections
SSRN · 6464938
The Takeaway
Researchers found that because U.S. nursing home inspections follow a predictable schedule, facilities 'slack off' on staffing and care quality once the risk of a surprise visit vanishes. Moving to truly unpredictable inspections could improve patient survival as much as a 12% increase in inspection frequency.
From the abstract
Inspections are a common tool for acquiring information and incentivizing compliance. Although inspections are typically unannounced, their timing often follows a predictable schedule. We study how this predictability shapes firm effort and patient outcomes in U.S. nursing homes, leveraging detailed administrative data on staffing, care, and health outcomes. Nursing homes "slack" in the low-risk period following an inspection and ramp up effort as their next inspection approaches. Patient surviv