AI can already do half of our jobs, but it’s only going to replace 2% of us.
April 17, 2026
Original Paper
A Framework for Assessing AI Exposure and Output Quality Across UK Occupations and Regions
SSRN · 6460768
The Takeaway
We’re constantly told that the 'AI revolution' is coming for our paychecks, but this study shows a massive gap between what AI can do and what the economy will actually allow. While 43% of the UK workforce is in the 'automation zone,' only 2% are at immediate risk of losing their jobs. This is because economic displacement isn't just about technical capability—it’s about regulation, cost, and human preference. We’ve been panicking about the 'end of work' when we should be focused on how AI will change the work we already have. For you, it means your job is likely safe, but the way you do it is about to get very strange.
From the abstract
Existing indices of occupational exposure to generative artificial intelligence typically assess the time saved on tasks or overlap with the abilities needed to perform a job activity. We present a new framework for measuring task-level exposure to AI that incorporates two dimensions: an exposure scale that captures not only time savings but whether a human is required 'in the loop', and a measure of minimum viable output (MVO), which assesses whether AI can independently produce work that would