economics Paradigm Challenge

'Green bonds' are ten times better for the planet than people think, but current corporate reports are totally missing the data.

March 20, 2026

Original Paper

The Carbon Footprint of Green Bonds: Evidence from Project-Level Data

SSRN · 6441539

The Takeaway

Critics often claim green bonds are 'greenwashing' because a company's total emissions rarely drop after issuing them. This research shows the impact is massive at the project level, but it is 'diluted' and hidden once combined with the company’s broader operations.

From the abstract

We introduce a measure of green bonds' carbon footprint based on project-level data and industry guidelines. This measure captures the avoided emissions generated by green-bondfinanced projects and is constructed by estimating both project emissions and the relevant counterfactual emissions. Using this metric, we revisit the inconclusive literature that evaluates corporate green bonds using firm-level emissions data. We derive several important insights. First, green bonds deliver meaningful env