Obsessive recycling and "circular" goals are actually making it 17% more expensive to hit our climate targets.
March 18, 2026
Original Paper
Are emissions and circularity targets compatible? Modeling tradeoffs for the Dutch energy system
SSRN · 6430622
The Takeaway
While we often assume 'green' goals all work together, this model shows they often compete for the same scarce resources like biomass. Forcing a country to be 'circular' (reusing materials) creates massive system-wide costs and resource bottlenecks that can actually slow down the primary goal of cutting carbon emissions.
From the abstract
Based on an expanded, material-focused energy system model of the Netherlands, we examined the interaction between emissions reduction and circularity, material-energy tradeoffs, and feasibility of meeting both targets by 2050. We find that non-biogenic direct material input is reduced by about 70% in the optimal net zero emissions scenario, via fossil fuel reductions, circularity, and material efficiency measures, even without a constraint or material use. More stringent circularity targets, ho