High-fatality mass shootings and their associated deaths in America have actually been on a slow decline for at least a century.
April 1, 2026
Original Paper
The Historical Incidence of High-Fatality Mass Shootings in America
SSRN · 6422779
The Takeaway
While public perception and media coverage suggest a modern epidemic of gun violence, long-term data analysis shows the frequency of these extreme events is lower now than in parts of the early 20th century. This finding challenges the fundamental assumption that mass shootings are a uniquely modern or rapidly accelerating phenomenon.
From the abstract
The New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen (2022) decision put the nail in the coffin of means-end scrutiny. 2 In any legal challenge, this makes attempts to argue for pragmatic decision making about the constitutionality of most gun laws irrelevant. But because lower court judges are likely to continue attempting to pull rank on the Court, it seems useful to see if one of those means-end claims has any merit, even in that Supreme Cort-agnostic context. This article seeks t