Even the near-total global shutdown during the COVID-19 pandemic was not enough to meet the carbon reduction goals of the Paris Agreement.
April 1, 2026
Original Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Carbon Emissions: A Sectoral Analysis of India and Global Trends Against the Paris Agreement Targets
SSRN · 6391818
The Takeaway
While many believe that stopping travel and industry would 'fix' the climate, this study shows that the massive 2020 lockdowns only achieved a 4.5% emissions drop. This is far short of the 7.6% annual reduction required every year to hit 1.5°C targets, suggesting that individual behavioral change is virtually powerless compared to the need for structural energy overhauls.
From the abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented contraction in global economic activity, producing a rare natural experiment for observing the relationship between human activity and carbon emissions. This paper examines sector-wise variation in CO2 emissions in India and globally during the pandemic year of 2020, using daily near-real-time data from the Carbon Monitor, and benchmarks observed changes against the 7.6% annual reduction target required under the Paris Climate Agreement to limit g