War actually increases social mobility, but only by dragging the rich kids down to everyone else's level.
March 19, 2026
Original Paper
Conflict, Education, and Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from Colombia
SSRN · 6302118
The Takeaway
Evidence from Colombia shows that while war is generally assumed to trap the poor, it actually disproportionately destroys the educational advantages of the wealthy. This 'levels' society not by lifting the bottom, but by increasing the likelihood of downward mobility for those at the top.
From the abstract
This paper examines how armed conflict shapes educational attainment across socioeconomic backgrounds and its implications for intergenerational mobility. Using data from Colombia and an instrumental variable strategy that exploits variation in U.S. military assistance interacted with proximity to military bases, I document that conflict reduces educational attainment disproportionately among individuals from more educated families-a pattern that reflects a weakening in the intergenerational per