The Shanghai stock market seems to be following an ancient Chinese calendar of 'Five Elements' rather than just modern finance.
April 16, 2026
Original Paper
Nayin Five Elements and Stock Market Cycles: A Two-Year Calendar Anomaly in the Shanghai Composite Index
SSRN · 6292918
The Takeaway
This paper reveals a bizarre correlation: the Shanghai Composite Index consistently mirrors the traditional Chinese Nayin Five Elements system. Specifically, periods designated as 'Earth' years have shown 100% positive returns over the studied timeframe. While it sounds like superstition, the effect is measurable and significant, suggesting that these ancient metaphysical beliefs are still modulating the 'mood' of millions of modern traders. It shows that even in a high-tech financial world, deeply ingrained cultural cycles can act as a hidden hand in the market. For investors, it means the 'fundamentals' might include a 2,000-year-old calendar you didn't know existed.
From the abstract
<div> This study documents a novel, culturally embedded calendar anomaly in the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE Composite) derived from the Nayin (纳音) Five Elements system—a traditional Chinese sexagenary calendrical framework. Utilizing daily data from 1990 to 2025, the analysis reveals a significant correlation between elemental two-year periods and market performance. </div> <div> <br> </div> <div> Key findings include: Earth-Element Dominance: Earth periods exhibit a 100% positive return rate