economics Paradigm Challenge

Using AI to predict when machinery needs maintenance can actually increase industrial pollution.

March 31, 2026

Original Paper

AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance and Environmental Risk Analytics in Industrial Operations

John David

SSRN · 6222078

The Takeaway

While intended to increase efficiency and sustainability, the paper found a 'rebound effect' where AI-optimized maintenance reduced unplanned downtime so effectively that companies responded by intensifying asset utilization, leading to higher localized emissions.

From the abstract

This study investigates the integration of artificial intelligence-driven predictive maintenance systems with environmental risk analytics in industrial operations, with the aim of improving operational resilience, sustainability, and regulatory compliance. Using a synthesis of empirical findings from prior industrial AI deployments and comparative analysis of predictive modeling frameworks, the study evaluates how machine learning, computer vision, IoT data streams, and environmental modeling c