Artificial intelligence is systematically destroying the first three years of every professional career path.
Employment data for 65 million workers shows that companies are using AI to replace junior-level tasks while keeping senior roles stable. Entry-level hiring has slowed significantly because the work typically given to new graduates is now done by machines. We used to assume that AI would replace the most dangerous or boring jobs first. Instead, it is removing the training ground where young professionals learn their trade. This creates a massive gap in the labor market where there is no longer a clear way to climb the ladder toward seniority.
Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change: Evidence from U.S. Résumé and Job Posting Data
SSRN · 5425555
We study whether generative AI (GenAI) constitutes seniority-biased technological change, disproportionately reducing demand for junior workers. We develop a conceptual framework in which GenAI adoption reduces junior labor demand through task displacement and labor-saving productivity gains. We test the framework's mechanisms and implications using U.S. résumé data covering 65 million workers at more than 280,000 firms (2015--2025), allowing us to track firm-level employment by seniority. GenAI