Temperature records from 60 million observations show the world warmed most rapidly when CO2 emissions were at their lowest.
Global temperature analysis reveals a surprising disconnect between carbon emissions and the speed of warming over the last century. The sharpest spikes in heat occurred during periods of modest industrial activity, while warming actually slowed down as emissions accelerated. Climate science generally operates under the consensus that CO2 is the primary and immediate driver of temperature changes. This data suggests that other factors or feedback loops in the climate system might be significantly more influential than previously calculated. Understanding this lag or disconnect is vital for making accurate predictions about future climate stability. It suggests our current models may be missing a secondary, equally powerful driver of global change.
Revisiting CO2 Emissions and Global Warming: Implications for Society
SSRN · 5395197
This paper revisits the relationship between CO2 emissions and global warming by analysing over 60 million daily temperature observations from over 1600 global weather stations, with continuous records spanning from the pre-1900 era to 2024. Employing fixed effects models to isolate temperature trends from station-specific and seasonal variations, the study finds an overall warming trend of 0.0048°C [TAVG] per year, after controlling for urban built-up areas. The analysis reveals a significant d