A monkey throwing darts at a list of startups is just as likely to find a unicorn as a top-tier venture capitalist.

Empirical analysis shows that the massive returns in venture capital are statistically indistinguishable from a random benchmark. The probability of hitting an extreme high-multiple outcome follows a heavy-tailed distribution where skill plays almost no measurable role. We treat legendary investors as visionaries who can see a future that others miss. In reality, the industry's success is mostly a product of making enough bets to eventually get lucky with a random outlier. This means the prestige of the VC world is built on a foundation of statistical chance rather than professional expertise.