Atlantic hurricanes follow a hidden limit that prevents them from bunching up as much as expected.

Standard hurricane forecasting has long relied on the Poisson distribution, which assumes storms happen at a random rate over time. Data from massive climate simulations shows that the annual storm count is actually underdispersed, meaning it stays within a tighter range than random chance allows. This suggests the atmosphere has a finite number of seeds or precursor disturbances that can actually grow into a cyclone. Meteorologists previously believed that a warm ocean could theoretically produce an almost unlimited number of storms in a lucky year. Understanding this ceiling helps insurance companies and coastal cities better estimate the true maximum risk of a devastating season.